Olmert Scandal Corrupts Peace Process

Olmert Scandal Corrupts Peace Process

For years there have been many attempts to formulate a peace process between Palestine and Israel. Despite successful peace settlements between Egypt and Israel and Israel and Jordan, negotiators have seen failure upon failure to achieve a settlement between Israel and Palestine. In 1993 there were the Oslo negotiations between Israel and the PLO for an end to decades of “confrontation and conflict" and each side recognizing "their mutual legitimate and political rights". However this partially failed due to Hamas and other Palestinian rejectionist groups not accepting the Oslo agreements. Then there were the CAMP DAVID 2000 negotiations whereby Israel offered the PLO the Gaza Strip and a big part of the West Bank, but keeping main settlement blocks and most of East Jerusalem. However for the Palestinians not enough was offered for them to accept and consequently led to another Palestinian Intifada. Later in 2002 there were talks of a Road Map, which would lay down the conditions of a settlement. This was then reversed in the GENEVA ACCORD, 2003, whereby growth and security was the main issue rather than a political agreement. Thus the settlement was based on the condition that the Palestinians must give up their "right of return" in exchange for a majority of the West Bank. Israel would also give up some major settlements. Nevertheless these negotiations do not even have an official status, presumably pending failure.

The current climate in the Middle East unfortunately looks no better. The dips and dives of the rollercoaster ride of likely agreements seems to have come to an end, as not only have the two main Palestine groups, Fatah and its Islamist rival, Hamas ruined any prospect of co-operation. But the Israeli Prime Minister, who has for the past year been riddled with corruption allegations, suggests that any indication for an early peace deal seems doubtful.

Olmert Vs Talansky - The Scandal explained

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared his intensions to resign by September of 2008, after being faced with dramatic allegations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. These set of events forever defined Olmert's scandal-shortened tenure as Israel's prime minister as an absolute fraudulent image. This seemed to be on the mind of many Israelis when an image on a poster used in a protest bared a picture of the American financier who testified in court to bankrolling Olmert's exquisite tastes: fine cigars and Montblanc pens, first-class flights and five-star suites, a designer watch and an Italian vacation all included in `Olmert tours'.

Morris Talansky, a Long Island philanthropist and fund-raiser for Israeli charities, is at the centre of a growing storm surrounding Israel's Prime Minister, which has riveted and agitated Israel despite a veil of secrecy over the continuing investigation.

Within Jewish circles, Mr. Talansky is best known for the years he spent as a fund-raiser for the American Committee for Shaare Zedek Medical Centre in Jerusalem. The hospital is popular with American Jewry, and its American fund-raising arm took in $20 million in gifts in 2002, a recent peak, according to available tax returns. Paul Glasser, the national executive director for the American organization, said Mr. Talansky had not worked for the charity since 1997. But the organization reported on its 2004 tax return that Mr. Talansky earned $90,000 that year as a consultant, with the organization pulling in more than $14 million from outside sources. Tax records also show that Mr. Talansky served as the main contact and treasurer for the American branch of the New Jerusalem Foundation, a charity closely associated with Mr. Olmert that raises money for causes in and around Jerusalem. The American branch received its tax exemption in the United States in 1999, when Mr. Olmert was in his sixth year as mayor of Jerusalem.

According to the charity's recent tax returns, it has had ups and downs, raising as much as $376,000 in contributions, gifts and grants in 2000, but only $76,000 in 2005.

Describing its mission as providing “social, educational and recreational activities in Israel,” the charity reported spending thousands of dollars to buy school supplies and to run camps for needy children in Israel and arranging recreational trips for residents of northern Israel who had been closeted in bomb shelters during recent hostilities.

Swarming under these numerous allegations Mr. Olmert withered under the hounding media and had no choice but to resign. Israeli political analyst Dan Margalit, called the prime minister's decision to quit "a sad end to a miserable career". Uri Dromi, another expert, called Olmert a "lame duck". However he still remains in office until the Kadima primaries on September 17th and if no government is formed after elections he could remain in office until 2010. Being as it may the question which is on the tip of everyone's tongue, is what is the impact of his resignation on the future peace process in the Middle East. Will he just remain a Lame Duck Prime Minister or will negotiations continue?

Could he capitalize on his lame duck status?

The corruption allegations of Ehud Olmert which subsequently led to his resignation has to a great extent impacted on any future peace process within the Middle East.

It is clear that negotiations with the Palestinians have stalled, not only because of Mr. Olmert flagging popularity, due to a lack of trust from his own electorate, which began as early as his career did with his decisions to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon. But also, as foreign policy experts suggest, because of the intensified fighting between the two Palestinian political factions, Hamas and Fatah, whereby any security promises made by Mr. Abbas will not be honoured by Hamas. Hamas seized control of Gaza a year ago, while Mr. Abbas is confined to the West Bank. Therefore until these two rival factions strike a deal, any negotiations made by Olmert are ineffective. Moreover they may prove even more futile, as Mr Olmert suggested that he did not believe Jerusalem will be part of the peace deal this year, despite Jerusalem being the most debatable issue for the Palestinians.

Aaron David Miller, author of “The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace”, said that, “The bottom line: Can Olmert reach a half-baked agreement minus Jerusalem with Abbas and with Condi looking on proudly in the next several months? Maybe. But can he sell it, let alone implement it, in an environment in which he has no popular support or moral authority, with Hamas threatening from the sidelines? No way”

Moreover the Independent leads with the editor's opinion that while Olmert remains in office for the next two months, little can be achieved for the peace process. “The peace talks with the Palestinians and Syrians will stall, despite assurances to the contrary. The ruling party will be plunged into a succession battle at a time of heightened tension over Iran's refusal to abandon its nuclear programme, on which Israel has hinted at air strikes.”

American Journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg, also spoke about the Olmert resignation, with his story entitled, `So, No peace Process then' he clearly illustrates that the impact of Olmert leaving office affects the peace process substantially. “Ehud Olmert is leaving the building. Slowly. Which nevertheless means that the Middle East process is frozen. It's amazing to think that someone of the stature of Morris Talansky could bring down an Israeli prime minister. But he's a Long Islander, and us Long Islanders have an infinite capacity for mischief,” he wrote.

Furthermore despite Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's efforts to lead Israeli talks with Palestine alongside Condoleezza Rice in Washington, Tamara Cofman Wittes, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says the announcement of Olmert's resignation hindered progress on Middle East peace negotiations, “because no matter what she accomplishes here in Washington, it won't matter — the peace talks have been thrown into turmoil.” Analyst for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, David Makovsky added, “Rice was counting on the fact that Olmert's dwindling political fortunes would lead him (Olmert) to turn to a diplomatic victory as a springboard toward a political comeback. But if he's leaving office, that doesn't happen.”

Interestingly most of the right wing Western Press and Olmert's very own right wing officials believe that his corruption allegations may on the contrary expedite negotiations, essentially allowing him to capitalise on his lame duck status. Analysts Yossi Klein Halevi and Michael Oren, for the Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies of the Shalem Centre in Jerusalem, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that Mr. Olmert may have a `nefarious motive' to stay in office till elections. In that, adding to the critics who argue Mr. Olmert in the last few weeks has sought negotiations with Palestine and with Syria via Turkish Middlemen for a compromise over the Golan Heights, as a `shovel' to dig himself out of corruption allegations. Klein Halevi and Oren suggest that Olmert will use the peace negotiations to prolong his stay in office in order to stall time and convince the `all-powerful Israeli media, overwhelmingly left-wing and deeply antagonistic to Netanyahu ' to support his deals.

According to this scenario, they argue that it may prevent Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu from attaining office based on a collapsed government, seeing as though they believe it is unlikely for either of Olmert's successors, Tzipi Livni or Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, to create a stable coalition. This is a very cunning plan, however that does not mean it will so easily fool the Israel population. “Mr. Olmerts use of peace negotiations to ensure his political survival was sufficiently cynical then. (in regards to Lebanon) Now in his desperation to achieve progress in negations - either with an eye toward his place in history or toward prolonging his stay in office- he could make concessions that violate Israel's most basic positions,” added Klein Halevi and Oren.

Furthermore a Political Scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Abraham Diskin commented that there are Israeli's who support the peace effort, but feel uncomfortable with their leader having `one eye on the clock'. Thus under these plans negotiations will move forward, but whether they are done under genuine circumstances is another story.

When asked about Olmert's departure, Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland , similarity added. “It doesn't affect the prospects much but, if anything, it affects them a little bit more positively, keeping in mind that the prospects were small to begin with.” He added, “That positive effect comes the immediate sense of urgency, and in some ways panic, on the part of Labor and Kadima, that might push them to try to preserve the government and therefore make them root for some kind of peace progress.”

However negotiations with Palestine are not the only deals that have been stalled. The recent tit-for-tat game play between the Israel and Iran over Iran's missile test launch caused a media frenzy, with reports suggesting that Israel would attack Iran based on security procedures.

Writer for the Guardian, Petra Marquardt-Bigman, suggested that the biggest question for the Israeli's since Olmert's resignation was, “how to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,” a concern that `trumps' all others she suggests. Essentially with the recent announcement that Tehran had successfully installed more centrifuges, leading Western agencies to believe they are now capable of producing material for a nuclear weapons, Olmert's departure has severely weakened Israel's once stealth position to attacking Iran.

Strong leaders needed, no muscle power required

The future of the talks depends to a great extent on who will be Israel's next leader. Editor for the Financial times suggest that, “Mr Olmert's resignation shows how difficult it has become in Israel's fragmented political system to find a leader who can deliver the peace deals it must strike with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbours. The window on that possibility is closing fast..” If not the peace process the biggest impact of Olmert's resignation is on the fate on the Kadima party. The fact that Tzipi Livni was unable to attain a coalition means that the rightist Likud party headed by Benjamin Netanyahu has a greater chance of succeeding leadership and his hard line policies on the Gulf are ones to be reckoned with.

Livni has the credentials for being leader; she is a strong advocate for negotiations and upholds her hardline policies on Hamas and rejecting any `right of return' for Palestine. Her decision to not withstand to any political bribery in order to hold a coalition shows she is a genuine candidate for leader. However to many critics her decision seemed nave and adds to her ill judgments, for when she called Olmert to resign after the Lebanon war, yet failed to `strike home' by resigning herself.

David Makovsky, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested that Livni has a reputation as "the integrity candidate," which could be more appealing to voters who feel alienated from the political scene, due to the corruption scandals that have dogged Olmert's priministerial career. Makovsky further adds that Mr. Mofaz has `organizational strength' within Kadima being a former Israeli army general and the government's chief negotiator on Iran. This as a result could give him an advantage with the voters who feel the current climate is a dangerous one.

It is clear that the corruption scandals of Ehud Olmert have subsequently plagued his prime ministerial career to a legacy of one of badly made decisions, such as going to war with Lebanon and questionable donations. It has also halted negotiations for a peace settlement not only because as leader he is no longer strong enough to hold talks, but also because his resignation has put political strains on his political party. He cannot hide behind his accelerated peace negotiations with Syria and Palestine, not just because Mr. Abbas will not buy it, but because the Israeli's will not buy it either. His popularity has plummeted to the extent that whatever he decides to do, he cannot reverse the fact that negotiations for a peace deal are effectively at a stand still until the next elections. For most of the Western Press and in Israel, Tzipi Livni seems the most sensible choice to succeed Mr. Olmert, but she would have to do a lot to restart negotiations, which at the moment are in deadlock. Since the Kadima party were unable to obtain a coalition, early elections have been called for and consequently Olmert is to remain in office possibly until March 2009. Ultimately Olmert may perhaps be remembered, at least in part, as the Prime Minister who really did put negotiations with Palestine at the forefront. He was effectively one of Ariel Sharon's `inner voices' while Morris Talansky was Olmert's inner demon.

By Nisha Chopra

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6666393.stm

Richard Boudreaux, Los Angeles Times “Corruption allegations and his handling of the Lebanon war did in Israel's prime minister despite diplomatic ventures toward peace”. August 1, 2008

Alison Leigh Cowan, New York Times, “Focus Turns to Long Island Philanthropist as Israeli Prime Minister Is Investigated” May 7, 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/31/israelandthepalestinians.middleeast

New York Times `Israel's Political Situation Dims Hopes for Peace Deal' 01/08/2008

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-a-long-overdue-departure-882554.html

The Atlantic.com `So, No peace Process then?' Jeffrey Goldberg - 30/07/2008

New youk Times - `Israel's Political Situation Dims Hopes for Peace Deal' 01/08/2008

Olmert's crimes - Haaretz- Opinion 31/07/08

`Will Olmert make a Lame Duck' - WSJ- 01/08/2008

New York Times ` Olmert to Quit After Elections in September'

Reuters `ANALYSIS-Olmert departure makes Mideast peace more elusive' By Arshad Mohammed http://www.reuters.com/article/featuredCrisis/idUSN31329884

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/04/israelandthepalestinians.middleeast

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d9aeff9e-5f2c-11dd-91c0-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Independent `Olmert bows to pressure and announces resignation' 31/07/2008